Limit-up, pullback, a thousand-yuan gain — on March 9, the PP market used an extreme trading session to make everyone rediscover the craziness of this commodity.

In the morning session, geopolitical panic ignited bullish sentiment, with PP futures hitting the daily limit-up within seconds of opening and spot quotes surging by RMB 2,000/ton; in the afternoon, a sharp drop in crude oil triggered a rational correction, ultimately narrowing the gain to above a thousand yuan. On this day, the market completed a full cycle from frenzy to calm.

Yesterday's price hikes by domestic PP petrochemical manufacturers:

Yesterday's PP surge leaderboard at China Plastics City:

Raw material prices surged across the board yesterday:

Cost transmission: As soon as tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jump. This directly drives up PP's raw material costs (propylene, propane). Especially for the import-dependent PDH route, costs are frighteningly high, forcing enterprises to cut production to support prices.

Supply landscape: Spring is already maintenance season, and combined with cost pressure, the current PP operating rate is only 73.77%, a low level in recent years. This week, 6 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and enterprises such as Guangzhou Petrochemical and Fujian Refining & Chemical in South China proactively reduced operating loads, further highlighting the tight supply pattern and continuously supporting upward prices.

Demand feedback: Everyone is afraid of running out of stock: at first, downstream manufacturers, fearing prices would continue to rise, all rushed to replenish inventory, creating "panic demand."

In summary, although today's market sentiment was fiery and a thousand-yuan gain was locked in, the afternoon correction has already sounded the alarm — this kind of market rally propped up by sentiment feels as fragile as a wafer.

Upstream is supported by low operating rates, downstream is burdened by losses, and crude oil is propped up by geopolitics. But as soon as any unfavorable news emerges externally, as soon as crude oil dares to drop another USD 10, this rally might collapse and overturn in the next second.  What truly deserves reverence is never the rise or fall of prices, but the ability to remain sober amid frenzy.