Recently, the global PVC industry has experienced a wave of concentrated force majeure shutdowns. Multiple major PVC manufacturers at home and abroad have successively issued force majeure notices, announcing the suspension or reduction of production loads at relevant facilities. Involving a large scale of production capacity, this has already had a significant impact on the global PVC supply chain and market supply-demand dynamics. This force majeure is not caused by a single factor; it primarily stems from the supply chain chain reaction triggered by the Middle East conflict, compounded by routine maintenance at some enterprises and deep industry losses, forming a cross-regional, cross-category supply contraction trend, with the impact still unfolding.

According to statistics, currently 5.2% (data continuously updating) of global PVC production capacity is under force majeure, and this wave of force majeure shutdowns has already had a strong impact on PVC market conditions, specifically as follows:

First, significant contraction on the supply side. Domestic PVC operating rates have declined month-on-month and are expected to fall further. The global PVC supply gap is widening, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying, and some regions are facing tight supply. In addition, domestic PVC enterprises are generally operating at a loss, and the combination of voluntary shutdowns of high-cost facilities with force majeure has further amplified the supply contraction effect.

Second, prices bottom out and rebound. Driven by both rising raw material costs and supply contraction, PVC prices have gradually emerged from their previous slump and shown a clear rebound. As of March 13, the PVC main continuous futures contract was reported at RMB 5,767/ton, up 3.23%, while mainstream spot prices have also rebounded significantly. The mainstream quotation for calcium carbide method Type 5 is approximately RMB 5,200–5,650/ton, and the mainstream quotation for ethylene method is approximately RMB 5,700–6,500/ton.

Third, persistent cost pressure. On March 9, both New York crude oil futures and London Brent crude oil futures broke through the USD 100 per barrel mark. The rise in oil prices directly drove a sharp increase in ethylene prices in East China, further pushing up the production cost of ethylene-based PVC. Meanwhile, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have caused ocean freight rates to soar; freight rates from China to India have doubled to over USD 100/ton, indirectly increasing PVC export costs.

Fourth, ripple effects across the downstream industrial chain. Downstream PVC sectors are significantly affected by price fluctuations. Among them, PVC glove manufacturers, driven by rising raw material costs, have entered a price increase cycle, with stock prices of leading enterprises such as Blue Sail Medical and Intco Medical rising in tandem. The price of DOTP, a core plasticizer for PVC gloves, has also risen accordingly, with a weekly increase of approximately 10.7% in the East China market, further pushing up downstream production costs. However, overall, downstream demand still shows a "weak recovery" trend. Constrained by the sluggish real estate industry, demand for downstream PVC products remains weak and has failed to provide effective support for prices.

In summary, the current large-scale force majeure shutdowns at PVC enterprises are a short-term phenomenon. Their core essence remains concentrated on supply-side contraction and cost-side increases, and they have not changed the fundamental supply-demand landscape of the industry. In the short term, supported by the Middle East conflict, "rush-to-export" demand, and high oil prices, PVC prices will remain at high levels, although inventory accumulation may suppress the rate of increase. In the medium to long term, as supply recovers and market conditions return to fundamentals, prices will most likely fluctuate and correct, with downstream demand recovery becoming the key factor.